What the State Climatologist Says About El Niño

I wrote about El Niño and New Jersey weather recently. Here's a follow-up with information from  State climatologist John Krasting, an extension specialist at Rutgers and an affiliate of the Rutgers Climate and Energy Institute. 

Krasting’s advice is monitoring rather than prediction. It is plausible New Jersey sees an active and damaging winter. It is also possible the jet pattern shifts, individual storms miss the coast, or temperatures favor rain over snow in ways that change the impact. 

The tropical Pacific is in an exceptionally strong El Niño, and it is expected to persist into early 2027. El Niño is a naturally occurring process in the tropical Pacific where the trade winds relax and the upper ocean warms. The warming covers a large enough area to influence the jet stream and weather patterns around the world. Scientists call those long-distance connections teleconnections, and they use past events and computer model simulations to identify regional patterns that become more likely during El Niño.

The cycle is part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. El Niño typically occurs once every two to seven years. La Niña is the opposite phase, with cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, and the cycle back and forth is the largest driver of year-to-year weather variability around the world. Last year was La Niña.

Image credit: NOAA

Krasting does not predict snow or temperatures for New Jersey from El Niño alone. His framing is deliberate: “Every El Niño has its own ‘personality,’ and only time will tell how it will ultimately impact New Jersey.”

New Jersey enters this winter with less buffer than usual. A powerful, early-season nor’easter in late September caused significant erosion, the worst since Superstorm Sandy in some locations. The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection surveyed 81 reaches after the storm and found major beach or dune erosion in 10 of them,

Another nor’easter this weekend is bringing rain to NJ, hail on Thursday and snow to areas north of the state.

The number to watch is not absolute ocean temperature; it is the anomaly, how far above the rest of the tropics the Niño-3.4 region has warmed. NOAA now tracks this with the Relative Oceanic Niño Index, or RONI, which compares Niño-3.4 to the rest of the tropics to isolate the ENSO signal from background warming. By that measure, an El Niño begins at 0.5°C above the rest of the tropics. Rutgers reported NOAA sea surface temperature anomalies of 2.5°C in the tropical Pacific in early November. In its November 12 discussion, NOAA put Niño-3.4 at +2.5°C, with even larger anomalies farther east at +3.6°C in Niño-3 and +4.4°C in Niño-1+2.

At 2.0°C and above, NOAA's official top category is very strong. “Super El Niño” is the informal name for the same threshold. Only five such events had occurred since 1965 before this one, which makes 2026 to 2027 the sixth.

An earlier November outlook put the chance this becomes the strongest since 1950 at greater than 80 percent. The November 12 update puts that chance at about 60 percent, while still expecting a strong to very strong event through winter. That revision is normal in seasonal forecasting. The ocean is very warm, the exact placement in the historical ranking is uncertain.

Contender Visiting the Jersey Shore

Contender being tagged and weighed

Contender, the largest male white shark ever tagged by OCEARCH in the Western North Atlantic, is heading south after spending the past four months in Atlantic Canada. His latest ping on November 6 placed him approximately 9 miles south of Atlantic City, New Jersey.

Contender is a white Shark (Carcharodon carcharias) who is 13 ft. 9 inches and weighing in at 1653 pounds.

Interestingly, Contender was detected in this same general area around this time last year, and comparing his movements from one season to the next gives scientists another opportunity to learn more about his migration patterns and behavior.

While the seasonal migration is underway, not all white sharks follow the same schedule or take the same route. Environmental factors like day length and sea surface temperature can influence when sharks begin moving south. Previous migration experience, site fidelity, and individual behavior may also help explain why some sharks migrate earlier or later than others.

Follow Contender and track his latest movements on the free OCEARCH Global Shark Tracker

ocearch.org/tracker/detail/contender 

Another Tick to Avoid - Alpha-gal Syndrome

Lone Star tick - CDC

Going for a hike, a walk in the woods, or just into your backyard this week? Be aware of yet another tick that might ruin your wandering. 

Alpha-gal syndrome (AGS) is a serious, potentially life-threatening allergic reaction triggered by a tick bite that makes people allergic to red meat and other mammalian products. Unlike most food allergies that manifest immediately, AGS is uniquely dangerous because its symptoms typically show up 3 to 8 hours after eating.

The Lone Star tick (Amblyomma americanum) is the primary culprit in the United States. Ticks carry a sugar molecule called alpha-gal (galactose-α-1,3-galactose) in their saliva. When the tick bites a human, it transfers this sugar into the bloodstream. The immune system flags it as a foreign threat and creates specific IgE antibodies to fight it. Later, when the person consumes mammalian products containing alpha-gal, the body triggers an allergic attack.

Yes, the Lone Star tick exists in New Jersey, and its population is actively expanding across the state. [It was historically confined to the southern regions and coastal plains of New Jersey—such as Monmouth, Ocean, and Cape May counties—but warmer winters and an increasing deer population have pushed their range much further north. They are now regularly detected in northern and central counties, including Hunterdon, Somerset, Bergen, and Passaic.

The presence of this tick in New Jersey is getting serious public health focus. In late 2025, researchers from the University of Virginia documented that a 47-year-old New Jersey man became the first recorded fatality in the United States from alpha-gal syndrome after suffering severe anaphylaxis from eating red meat following a camping trip. 

In the central and southern parts of the state, lone star ticks have become so prevalent that they actually outnumber local blacklegged (deer) ticks. Unlike regular ticks that wait passively for a host to pass by, lone star ticks actively pursue hosts by sensing vibrations and carbon dioxide. 

They are highly active in New Jersey from March through October, thriving in forests, tall grass, brush piles, and suburban backyards.

The New Jersey Department of Health and municipal health departments actively issue warnings urging residents to take heavy precautions in wooded or high-grass areas. To protect yourself, use EPA-registered repellents, wear long clothing pre-treated with permethrin, and perform thorough tick checks immediately after coming indoors.

Symptoms range from mild discomfort to medical emergencies. They include: [1] Skin Reactions: Hives, severe itching, swelling, or flushing. Digestive Issues: Severe stomach pain, diarrhea, vomiting, nausea, and heartburn. Respiratory Issues: Coughing, wheezing, and shortness of breath. Anaphylaxis: A severe drop in blood pressure and closed airways requiring emergency medical care. 

Those diagnosed with AGS must strictly avoid food derived from mammals: Beef, pork, lamb, venison, rabbit, and goat. Dairy products (milk, cheese, butter), gelatin, lard, and sometimes medications or capsules made with mammalian ingredients. 

Safe Alternatives: Poultry (chicken, turkey), fish, and shellfish do not contain alpha-gal and are completely safe to eat. 

Doctors diagnose AGS by taking a detailed history of your symptoms and performing a blood test to check for alpha-gal-specific IgE antibodies. There is no cure. Treatment centers entirely on lifestyle management, avoiding trigger foods, and carrying an epinephrine auto-injector (EpiPen) for accidental exposures. 

The allergy can sometimes decline or disappear over several years, provided you do not get bitten by any more ticks. 

AGS should be managed under the care of an allergist or other healthcare provider. 

King Tides Along the Jersey Shore

Flooding in Ocean City via njconservation.org/help-document-sunny-day-flooding

You may be hearing the term "king tides" recently on the news, connected to weather conditions. What are "king tides?" A king tide is a non-scientific term for the highest predicted high tide of the year at a coastal location. 

New Jersey is experiencing a major king tide window right now, and more are expected in the near future. New Jersey is currently in the middle of a predicted king tide window spanning October 27 to 28, 2026. Triggered by yesterday’s full moon converging with the Moon's closest approach to Earth, 8 out of 9 NOAA monitoring stations across the state are seeing their highest astronomically predicted tides.

What Causes King Tides?
Celestial alignment plays a role. These tides happen when the orbits and alignments of the Earth, Moon, and Sun combine to create maximum gravitational pull. They occur when the Moon is closest to Earth (called perigee) during a New or Full Moon.

Depending on the region, they often happen a few times a year during specific seasons, such as fall and winter. 

One common effect is called "sunny day flooding." The weather is fine, but these tides can push seawater over seawalls and up through storm drains onto streets even on clear, cloudless days with no storms. They also cause very low tides at alternate times of the day, which can expose marine life, sandbars, or shallow channels.

The absolute highest tide of this specific New Jersey window is occurring at Wildwood Crest, reaching an estimated 6.0 feet—which sits a notable 1.1 feet above normal high water levels (MHHW).

While high pressure is keeping skies mostly dry, the sheer gravitational force of this alignment is causing "sunny day" minor coastal flooding. Tidal waters are spilling onto the most vulnerable low-lying roads and bayside communities along the Jersey Shore during morning high tide cycles

King tides are called "king" because they represent the highest, most dominant natural high tides of the year. Just as a king sits at the top of a hierarchy, these tides tower above normal daily and monthly high tides, creating the largest tidal range (highest highs and lowest lows). 

NOAA's National Ocean Service would refer to them as perigean spring tides. Besides when the Moon is at perigee, they often occur during specific times of the year when the Earth is also closest to the Sun (perihelion) or when weather and warm water expansion add extra height.