What the Wooly Bears Say About the Winter Ahead

Pyrrharctia isabella, the Isabella tiger moth, whose larval (caterpillar) form is called the banded woolly bear, woolly bear, or woolly worm, occurs in the United States and southern Canada. It was first formally named by James Edward Smith in 1797.

mature eggs

This species is a generalist feeder, consuming many plant species, including herbs and trees. Based on the caterpillars' wide range of food plants, this moth could be found almost anywhere that plants grow

Canadian and U.S. folklore holds that the relative amounts of brown and black hair on a larva indicate the severity of the coming winter. It is believed that if a Pyrrharctia isabella's brown band is wide, winter weather will be mild, and if the brown band is narrow, the winter will be severe. In a variation of this story, the color of stripes predicts the winter weather, with darker stripes indicating a harsher winter. 

Another version of this belief is that the direction in which a Pyrrharctia isabella crawls indicates the winter weather, with the caterpillar crawling south to escape colder weather. 

Next year, the caterpillars that survive winter will become Isabella Tiger Moths.

There is no scientific evidence for winter weather prediction by Pyrrharctia Isabella, but that hasn't stopped many places across the country from having wooly bear festivals. And it hasn't stopped many people - including myself - from taking note of these fuzzy critters and noting what they are "predicting" for winter. Actually, hatchlings from the same clutch of eggs can display considerable variation in their color banding, and a larva's brown band tends to widen with age as it molts.

Curious about our coming NJ winter?
Here is my own wooly bear's prediction for my part of NJ this winter.

Warmer Planet and More Jersey Snow

In the end, climate change will mean the planet will be warmer - but on these cold December NJ days, it's worth noting that right now we will probably be getting more cold, wet and snowy weather.

According to the Weather Underground, last winter a natural climate pattern known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was at the most extreme negative side since record keeping began in 1865.

The high pressure replacing low pressure over the Arctic had only been this extreme for 4 winters in the past 160 years—1969, 1963, 1936, and 1881.

The NAO is one of oldest known climate oscillations. Seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe and the U.S. East Coast, but leads to very warm conditions in the Arctic, since all the cold air spilling out of the Arctic gets replaced by warm air flowing poleward.

Other factors include the El Niño/La Niña cycle and natural oscillations in stratospheric winds.

Peregrine Falcon Webcam Views

Many visitors to the NJ DEP Division of Fish and Wildlife web site are familiar with the Peregrine Webcam which streams video from Jersey City.  Fortunately there are another estimated 20 nests found throughout the state, from river bridges to coastal nesting platforms to the Palisades and beyond.

Star-Ledger videographer Andre Malok recently accompanied biologist Kathy Clark on banding day in Atlantic City. There, for the past 20 years, peregrines have been nesting on a ledge outside a Hilton Casino penthouse suite.  His video provides a "bird's eye view" of the nest area, biologists at work, and the reactions of hotel staff.

To view Andre's video visit http://videos.nj.com/star-ledger/2010/06/peregrine_falcons_nesting_on_t.html on the NJ.com website.

To learn about and view the Jersey City nestbox, visit http://www.njfishandwildlife.com/peregrinecam/index.html on the division's website.

NJ Weather and Climate Network

These past few weeks, with the weather being unusually cold and with early snow, I found myself turning more frequently to weather reports on the radio, TV and Internet. I also discovered a great weather resource for New Jersey online that is worth bookmarking. It is the NJ Weather and Climate Network at Rutgers University.

It has a variety of sophisticated reports for our state. You can see the hot spots and cold spots, wind, humidity, dewpoint and more in reports that come from stations across the state.

Check the map of stations for one near your home. I can look at reports from High Point, to Caldwell, at the Pequest Trout Hatchery and down at Cape May Harbor.

If you are a gardener, you can get the soil temperature in your area for planting. You may also want to check the precipitation map.

Even if you're not a weather bug, the site has lots of interesting  information. This would be a great site for teachers to use to teach students about using data for research.

Do you use Google Earth? You can mashup the sites data with their maps for some great local detail. (see bottom of home page)

And if seeing is believing for you, the site also has links to the locations of webcams throughout the state. (These web cams are not maintained by the NJWxnet and are not affiliated with the ONJSC or Rutgers University in any way.) Things look good even in the cold weather at Long Beach Island.

NJ Weather & Climate Network at Rutgers University
http://climate.rutgers.edu/njwxnet/